Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Politics, ad nauseum (sort of)

In spite of being on retreat, followed by an increase in time spent in meditation, I am still obsessed with this political season. It's been a roller coaster ride of emotions; excitement, fear, hope, anger and teeth-gnashing (yeah, that's not an emotion, but I like the expression). You'd think that with the extended and crazy primary season that I'd be sick of it all by now, but I'm not. In fact, I'm a bit worried about it ending. Will I have to start following team sports to fill the void?

Anyway, there's quite a bit of interesting poll analysis at FiveThirtyEight. If you like statistics or are making bets on the race for Prez, hurry over there and check it out!

A part of me doesn't believe what I've been reading this morning. It's looking pretty bad for McCain. Here's a few juicy scenario odds:

There is a 0.32% chance of McCain winning all the states Bush won in 2004. The odds of McCain winning the electoral college vote but losing the popular vote are 0.54%.
The odds of Obama winning both the popular and electoral vote right now are 88.4%.

I find this stuff fascinating. Why? I have no idea.

Putting aside my near-obsessive fascination with the minutiae of the campaigns, my thoughts today are with Obama and his grandmother. She is, reportedly, on her deathbed. She may have been the most important figure in his upbringing, and losing her within two weeks of the election is rough. He will stop campaigning for a few days to be with her. I am constantly amazed at Obama's equanimity. I really hope that the McCain campaign doesn't step up it's attacks during this difficult time.

Photo note: A completely absurd and inappropriate choice after the last paragraph. Obama's grandmother is from Wichita, Kansas, where Pizza Hut first opened. Believe it or not, this is the first Pizza Hut building. Times sure have changed.

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